The Perfect Wave

We are tracking an advancing technology wave that has been building in strength, on two fronts, for around 50 years. During this time it has been gradually impacting and changing the landscape as it moves differently across almost every industry and market. Now, the ever-increasing ocean of knowledge and technology is being influenced by a growing climate of demand for advanced solutions, which is generating distinctly bigger waves caused by the combined interaction of the two major forces producing the core energy source for the perfect wave. We now detect a steep step in the face of the next set of advanced technology waves, which are already beginning to surge across the metaphoric shore of the global market place.

We identify two fundamentally different, but interacting, forces as the main cause of the power of this unprecedented wave event, which has been building for decades:

Advanced computing technology application and integration across industry, cities, consumer products and scientific research and engineering, which is strongly impacting, for example, the following areas:
- Design, simulation, and automation (tools)
- Data collection, management, visualisation, user interactivity, and real-time utilisation (content)
- Communication, decision making, virtual social networks and participation (behaviour)
Advanced nature technology application and integration across natural and built environments, industry, consumer products, science, and engineering, which is strongly impacting, for example, the following areas:
- Sensing, monitoring; modelling, diagnostics and determining consequences (feedback)
- Production, harvesting, generation and supply of materials, water and energy (inputs)
- Architecture, engineering, materials, structure, fabrication, processes, and systems (form and function)

Having now reached a new stage in the evolution of knowledge, application, integration, standardisation, and availability, the turbulent force of these technology waves is exploding development of new solutions and options. As these waves hit, they each build the strengthening undercurrent of technology adoption and new creative applications that silently propagates innovations across production, products and business models creating the short, medium and longer-term disturbances observed in the market place.

Principles To Gain Competitive Advantage

To gain the advantage of advanced technologies, create new revenue and improve the bottom line, most organisations will need to learn, explore, discover and experiment, as they implement a transition process and adapt to this fundamental shift occurring across the market and business landscape. Done right, these activities will secure significant value and benefit to the enterprise.

In order to achieve a future position of advantage, the organisations leadership, across their Board, Executive and Management must first define and make a resolution on an advanced technology orientated strategic intent that can guide the whole enterprise as it finds new ways to grow, increase value, and improve operating performance. For more, see the Method page.

Learn 1

Explore 2

The essential first step towards enabling leaders to implement an informed strategic response is to learn about this major technology wave, its foundations and understand its expansive scope and transformative implications. As they learn, leaders become equipped and prepared to explore, discover and begin to create a new advanced conception of their enterprise, along with advanced solutions directed to customer specific needs. This is achieved by learning new thinking models and frameworks, which provide a coherent structure that supports collective pursuit of advanced technology options.

In this phase, the organisation learns to understand their position in the market and shift to advanced technology. A new frame is created to scan the changing market place, identify relevant technologies and guide strategic thinking and eventually drive enterprise wide action.

Discover 3

Just as managers cannot manage what they cannot measure, leaders cannot lead the enterprise into new territory that they are not familiar with or understand. It is therefore vital that leaders, along with their change agents, innovators and managers take time to explore the advanced technology landscape, devices, start-ups, investment activity, R&D, new enterprise solutions and what territory is opening for development and growth. Exploration is different to searching, where you know broadly what you are searching for. The objective is to explore new territory, develop a new view of how the world could be, expand perspectives and deepen understanding today.

Exploration should remain a continuous activity, that builds and feeds the process of discovering new valuable opportunities and sources of future potential that match the enterprises intended trajectory.

Experiment 4

Developing a new strategic architecture, which guides development of core competencies, allocation of resources and provides coherency to the whole organisation, over the long-term, requires it to take action, experiment and learn, take action, experiment and learn as the enterprise creates its advanced technology response for tomorrow. Initially the path will not be clear, but with selection of clear direction, specific territory and time spent exploring and experimenting with the ideas, options, and possibility, the best direction matched to the enterprise will emerge. Orderly, well structured and goal specific experiments, conducted at different scales across product, delivery, and production aspects provide an effective means to rapidly evaluate, learn lessons and optimise the enterprises transition by making adjustments to the vision, competitive path and alliances.

With every experiment, the capability of the organisation to imagine and try new and better ways becomes a stronger competency, which is becoming widely regarded in leadership and management circles as essential for operating in todays rapidly changing environment.

Now that the wide world of opportunity, that is being gradually revealed with each successive wave of advanced technology, is being explored and is better known, the discover stage becomes possible. To deliver maximum value and minimise risks leaders should, after proper exploration of the new territory, work to discover "where to play and how to win". Since we never accept the problem, as given, when working out how to transition to the future first, we like to adapt Roger Martin’s idea of, "Where to Play and How to Win" , to "Where to Play and How to Win-Win-Win", which keeps a steady focus on delivering outcomes for the organisation and its employees, todays stakeholders, which includes shareholders, customers, and the community. The third and important win is for the future enterprise, its employees, shareholders and other stakeholders.

The discover activity allows the many options, different competitive paths and most valuable of all, imagination of the possible and seemingly impossible realms of application, evolution and interaction of advanced technologies to be mapped and assessed.

Understanding the Accelerating Rate of Change

"We’re entering an age of acceleration. The models underlying society at every level, which are largely based on a linear model of change, are going to have to be redefined. Because of the explosive power of exponential growth, the 21st century will be equivalent to 20,000 years of progress at today’s rate of progress; organizations have to be able to redefine themselves at a faster and faster pace.....

Most projects fail, not because the R&D department can’t get it to work, but because the timing is wrong. Probably more often than not these days, projects are premature. All the enabling forces aren’t in place yet. But it’s also not a good idea to just target today’s world, because windows can be closed by the time you finish a project. So you really have to catch the wave at just the right time.....

Organisations have to be able to redefine themselves at a faster and faster pace.”

Ray Kurzweil, May 2, 2003. Inventor, entrepreneur, author, and futurist.

There are two differences that are important to an understanding of the scale and dynamics of the transformations that will take place.

First, cleantech is not a sector in the traditional sense (like IT or biotech), more a theme. It encompasses the development, manufacturing and deployment of technologies that can improve the economic productivity and environmental performance of all sectors. Be it consumer companies de-materializing and improving the resource efficiency in their supply chains, or the aviation industry adopting sustainable biofuels, changes across every industry and every part of our economy will occur. The disruption potential of innovation is huge, and thus the business stakes are high. There will be big winners and big losers.

Second, no previous technology revolution has been so global in nature: multiple parts of the world will play a role in this revolution. We are currently seeing an explosion of cleantech innovation, government support, and investment capital being deployed all across the world. Europe continues to build on its cleantech expertise and head start, while ‘green’ stimulus money is allocated by many countries in catch-up mode, most aggressively by the US, China and South Korea. A new ‘space race’ has begun, as the competition to lay claim to the spoils intensifies, with or without a global climate agreement. The lure of economic growth and job creation drives governmental interventions. What will ultimately determine success and failure will be how well countries and regions can take their own specific resources and expertise - be those natural, technological, or skills-based – and surround them with smart policy levers.

Financial Times, Germany, Friday Dec 2009, The Cleantech Group

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